Product 1 of 5 ยท Forecast and plan
A season plan built from what each store sells.
SeasonTail forecasts demand by store, channel and week, and turns it into the sales, margin and inventory budgets your season is bought against.
| Month | Plan | Last year | Open to buy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb | 62 | 55 | $410k |
| Mar | 78 | 70 | $520k |
| Apr | 92 | 88 | $480k |
| May | 100 | 97 | $350k |
| Jun | 84 | 90 | $190k |
| Jul | 58 | 66 | $60k |
What goes wrong today.
Targets set from the top
Last year plus a percentage, split down by store share. The plan is weakest where the season is won: in the stores.
Last year's sell-outs lower this year's plan
When a style sold out early, its sales stopped. A forecast built on raw sales plans less of what customers wanted most.
Plans that stop agreeing
The financial plan, the buy and the markdown budget live in separate spreadsheets. By week three they tell different stories.
What forecast and plan does.
Demand by store, category and week
Forecast bottom-up from each store's own sales, with seasonality, calendar shifts, promotions and store openings and closures accounted for.
Lost sales put back
Weeks when a product was out of stock are recognised, and the demand it would have sold is estimated instead of ignored.
Top-down meets bottom-up
Reconcile the targets finance sets with what the stores can sell, and see exactly where the two disagree.
Open-to-buy by month
Sales, receipts, inventory and margin by month and category, so buying knows what it can spend and when.
Markdown in the plan
The expected cost of clearing the season is budgeted from the start, not discovered in the last six weeks.
Weekly reforecast
Each week's sales update the forecast for the rest of the season, so the plan stays a plan and not a record of what was hoped.
From your data to a decision you can check.
Every recommendation shows its reasons. Planners adjust and approve before anything is sent.
Reads
- Two years of weekly sales and stock by store and channel
- Retail calendar, events and promotions
- Store openings, closures and refits
- Financial targets for the season
Decides
- Demand by store, category and week
- Sales, margin and inventory plan
- Open-to-buy by month and category
Sends
- The plan to your merchandise planning or ERP system
- Budgets to buying
- The forecast every other SeasonTail decision starts from
One model behind every decision.
Forecast and plan reads from the same season model as the other four decisions. Use it on its own, and every one you add later starts with what it has learned.
How the platform fits togetherKeep your stack. Add forecast and plan.
Forecast and plan works on its own, next to the systems you already use. Add the other decisions when you're ready: they read from the same season model, so each one starts with everything the last one learned.
See how it fits together- Works with what you run
- Exports from your merchandising, ERP and allocation systems are enough to start. Decisions go back in the formats those systems already take.
- Planners stay in charge
- Every recommendation shows its reasons. Planners adjust and approve, and nothing leaves until they do.
- Your data stays yours
- It is used to plan your season, and never shown to another retailer.
Questions about forecast and plan.
Does this replace our merchandise financial planning system?
It doesn't have to. Many teams keep their planning system as the place budgets are signed off, and use SeasonTail's forecast to fill it. The plan goes back in the format your system already imports.
How far ahead does it forecast?
A full season ahead for buying, and week by week for the rest of the current season once it starts.
Can planners change the forecast?
Yes. Any number can be adjusted, with a note on why, and the change flows through to budgets and open-to-buy.
See forecast and plan on your own season.
Bring one category's sales and stock. We'll show you what SeasonTail would decide, and why.